A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
